About 'john mccain vietnam story'|A fellow Vietnam War POW discusses John McCain’s history and character
Miami -- With only three days left until the end of early voting and four until perhaps one of the most highly-anticipated presidential elections in U.S. history, Florida, with its 27 electoral votes, has been barnstormed by the dueling campaigns of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), clearly reflecting its status as a battleground state. Over the past few days, all four candidates - Obama, McCain, and their respective running mates, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) have made stump speeches in front of thousands of their supporters, each one trying to make his or her case for why he (or in Palin's case, she) should win Floridians' hearts, minds, and votes in their bid to succeed President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney on Jan. 20, 2009. As a long-time Floridian, I remember a time when the state was not necessarily a "battleground" state. Throughout my lifetime, Florida has been a reliably Republican stronghold, particularly in North Florida, in a stretch known as the "I-4 Corridor," and in Miami-Dade County, where a large and very conservative Cuban-American community has consistently voted for GOP presidential candidates since the 1968 election. Indeed, the Republican grip on Florida has been so strong (the party has a majority in the Legislature, and Gov. Charlie Crist is one of the most popular politicians in the Republicans' dimming constellation of "stars") that although Sen. Obama is leading in the polls, the margin is very narrow. For instance, the latest available poll from CNN/Time/ORC (Oct. 22-28) shows Obama leading McCain 48% to 45% , and 7% of the respondents still saying "Not Sure." Obviously, both sides have been waging an all-out war of ideas, mostly focused on "pocketbook" issues that have emerged as a result of the global economic crisis and surprisingly eclipsed the previous hot-button issue - the war in Iraq. The way I see the match-up goes something like this: The McCain-Palin ticket will win big in the Cuban-American community, particularly among the exilio original crowd which arrived between 1959 and 1969. Strongly conservative, mostly of white European ancestry, and staunchly anti-Castro, the first generation of Cuban-Americans tends to be elderly and unwilling to vote for any Democratic candidate, much less one with African-American and foreign roots. McCain and the three South Florida Republican Congressional candidates (incumbents all) can count on their support not just because they are worried that an Obama Administration will raise taxes and/or be willing to sit down with the Castro brothers, Venezuela's leftist leader Hugo Chavez, and Iran's radical President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but also that he will kick all the Cubans out of the United States. The Republicans can also count on many conservative white voters, even though the Evangelical Christian right is suspicious of the sometimes independent "maverick" Arizona Senator. Before the financial meltdown early this fall, McCain appealed mostly to supporters of the war in Iraq and people who see the Democratic Party as weak on national defense and foreign policy and being the "tax and spend" crowd. McCain will also get support from veterans, particularly in the Pensacola area; the Navy has a famous flight school there, and a young Ensign McCain, son and grandson of admirals, earned his wings there in the late 1950s after graduating from Annapolis. Some conservative African-American voters will likely support the ex-pilot and Vietnam War POW, too. Meanwhile, the Obama-Biden ticket should win big among the mostly-Democratic African-American constituency, partly because of his roots (his father was a black man from Kenya, and his mother was a white woman from Kansas), and partly because South Florida's black community has tended to vote Democratic since that party became more liberal as a result of the civil rights movement and the Vietnam War/Watergate era. Normally a segment of the population that tends to have low turn out on Election Day, if what I see on TV newsscasts about early voting is any indication, Florida's black voters will overwhelmingly vote for Obama. The young, especially first-time voters who are fired up by the charismatic Senator from Illinois' speeches and relative youth, should seal the deal for Barack Obama. The question is if many of those who registered to vote in 2008 will actually show up to the polls - either for early voting or on Tuesday. As an article in today's Miami Herald says: "In the final days of the 2008 presidential campaign, supporters of Democrat Barack Obama are counting on young voters, many of them newly registered, to help put their candidate in the White House. But that will require young people to actually turn out at the polls, something they haven't done as reliably as senior voters, who tilt in favor of Republican John McCain." That article does go on to say that young voters have taken this election more seriously, with a 13% turnout so far in the primaries, compared to a paltry 4% in the now-infamous elections, as well as emphasizing the Republican Party's concerted efforts to reach out to the 18-30 demographic group now being aggressively wooed by the Obama campaign. The South Florida Hispanic community which is not Cuban-American will more than likely give Obama a substantial boost in votes, although not by a decisively large margin. Colombian-Americans resent Obama's refusal to support the free trade agreeement between the U.S. and Colombia (the Democratic Party is taking its cues from the AFL-CIO and other unions which oppose the treaty for various reasons), so few will vote for him. Some Venezuelans feel the same way about Obama as the Cubans; they think the Democrats are leftist-leaning and will turn the U.S. into a communist state. But by and large, many other Latinos will vote against McCain, whom they see as siding with anti-immigrant whites and the extreme right wing of the Republican. Lastly, Florida's Jewish community, which traditionally supports the Democratic Party, will give much of its support to the Obama-Biden ticket despite allegations - false at that - that the Presidential candidate is Muslim and anti-Israel. There will be, of course, some Jewish voters who will vote Republican because they agree with McCain's foreign policy and tax proposals, but John Kerry carried Miami-Dade County in the 2004 election partly because of the Jewish community's strong turnout and adherence to political affinity toward liberal social policies. |
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